NFL Week 4 Game Predictions

My Week 3 NFL Picks started out with a bang!!! Of the 14 games selected, I sprayed at the tune of 12-2 for straight-up winners. That’s a pretty impressive stat considering the upset picks of Oakland-Jets, Detroit-Minnesota, TB-Atlanta, SF-Cincy, and a semi-upset of Seattle-Arizona. Picks versus the point spread went 8-6 and and underwhelming 6-8 versus the over/under. For those of you unaware of what some of these terms mean, here is a quick breakdown. The spread is the line set by Vegas odds-makers (this may vary based on local books, but doesn’t vary too much). If, say the Patriots are favored by 9 points such as last week against Buffalo, they virtually start the game losing 9-0 in the world of football gambling. If they beat Buffalo 30-21, it’s a called a push. This will cost you just the 10% commission on the bet. Basically, if you bet $100 on the Pats in this instance you would owe the house $10. Keep an eye on spreads with the 1/2 point added to them. In the above-mentioned scenario if the spread were set at -8.5 points. You would be taking home the $100 or in the opposite end of the spectrum at -9.5 the Pats would’ve lost you $110. Savvy? In regards to the over/under, well this is much easier to understand. It is simply the total number of points both teams score combined.

In comparison to the ESPN expert picks and adding in two forfeits to our loss column for not posting picks for the Sunday Night & Monday Night games, we would be in the lead by a game over all 8 of the experts , accu-score and the public’s majority picks all finishing at 11-5. Now, on to my prognostications for week 4.

Carolina at Chicago: The spread opened at -6 for Chicago at home and the over at 44 points for the total. It has since moved to 6.5 for Da Bears and 42.5. I agree with the movement. Ron Rivera formerly the DC of Chicago’s Super Bowl defense of 2006 may push the weak offensive line of Chicago, but the Cam hasn’t faced a linebacker/lineman combo similar to Urlacher and Peppers yet. I expect to see Fig Newton to throw a couple mistakes on his side of the field, setting up a couple of easy scores for Da Bears. Add in the home-field, special teams difference of the two teams and the anger of the Packers loss and I see a low-scoring victory for Chicago. My Pick: Chicago wins 21-16 but doesn’t cover the spread. Under 42.5

Buffalo at Cincy:  After breaking the streak of 15 straight losses to New England last week, the law of averages bites the Bills back this week, Buffalo has a 10 game streak against Cincy, but this game has letdown written all over it.  Zero movement on the line of Buffalo by 3 and the total of 43.5 says the books had it right from the get go. Buffalo struggled against the Raiders run powered offense 2 weeks ago and needed a special second half at home to pull that one out. Expect a lot of Benson this week with the home-crowd and a Time of Possesion difference helping the Bengals to pull the upset. My Pick: Cincy wins 24-23 and holds off Fitzy and a late rally. Over

Tennessee at Cleveland: No Kenny Britt means that Cleveland can stack the box against the Titans and stop Chris Johnson. The Titans are historically weak on the road, Hillis will pound the ball down their throats and McCoy and the dog pound will move to 3-1 for the first time in 10 years. Hasselbeck will force a few up as he is a bit of a chance taker and the athleticism and precision route running missed with Britt’s injury will hurt the Titans in the end. My Pick: Cleveland wins at home 23-17 to cover a Pick Em (zero pt spread) and nudge the total of 39 points.

Detroit at Dallas:  Stafford is playing well and Suh has been stellar as have the Lions at 3-0, but they have just started to learn the ropes of winning on the road and are heading to the largest stadium in the land. The line sits at only -2.5 with Dallas as the favorites even with Miles Austin out and Dez Bryat questionable. The majority of people are sitting with Detroit here, but a bump in the line despite these injuries, the return of Felix Jones, a clever game-plan for Dallas’ offense and Detroit’s lack of road-winning experience tells me that Big D takes it. My Pick: Dallas 28-24 to cover the spread of -2.5 and over the total of 46.

Minnesota at KC: KC hasn’t held a lead yet this year and has the 28th ranked run-defense in the league. Minny has had the lead at the half in all three games this year and just has to find away to put a game in the coffin. KC’s defense is ripe for the picking by Adrian Peterson and when he gets going early the lack of a Eric Berry at safety will leave KC’s D susceptible to a few deep balls. My Pick: Minny wins by 10, 27-17 to cover the -1 point spread and the over of 40.

Washington at STL:  When will the real Rex Grossman rear its ugly head? I say this week. There are an awful lot of road teams giving points this week. Steven Jackson is two weeks removed from the quad injury plus Chris Long’s pressure on Grossman will earn St Louis it’s first win of the season. Expect something similar to last season’s blowout win by St Louis at home vs the Skins. My Pick: St Louis 30-17. Over the total of 43.5 and to cover as home dogs +3

SF at Philly:  The line sits at -9.5  in favor of the Eagles. Vick is playing, they are trying to avoid a 3 game losing streak and to keep pace with the NFC East. Alex Smith will struggle and throw 3 picks in this game in hostile territory, Philly will hold a decent half-time lead helping to afford some much needed rest for the star QB. A pick six is predicted in this one and DeSean Jackson finally has a big day to put the cherry on top. My Pick: Philly wins big 30-10 in a blow-out and under the total of 43.5

New Orleans at Jacksonville: Colston is back for the Saints, Brees is playing at his usual elite level and Jacksonville is trying to rebuild around rookie Blaine Gabbert in his first home start. Hmmmm not much else to say here. Blowout city!!!! My Pick: New Orleans 31-10 to cover the -7.5 spread and under the total of 45.5

Pittsburgh at Houston:  Everybody is picking Houston to win this game, but the Steelers run defense will make Schaub and the Texans offense one-dimensional and allow Pert Plus to smooth out another ball-hawking pick six. Once again after week 4 everyone will be asking the question..”How is this Houston team with sooo much talent at .500 again?” It’s called a tough schedule folks. Big Ben pads his stats with Wallace on a deep route, sacks reign supreme and the Steelers make a statement to the AFC that they will not allow Baltimore to pull away. My Pick is Pitt covers as road dogs and wins out right 26-23 . Spread is +3.5 and over the posted total of 45.5

NYG at Arizona: Kolb didn’t look comfortable last week, but with that deafening noise and new scheme he’s dealing with, I wasn’t surprised as I picked Seattle. The home-field advantage will help matters this week as will the expected return of Beanie Wells. A balanced offense and no Mario Manningham for the G-Men will end in a high-scoring affair in this game. My Pick: Arizona wins 28-24 to cover the +1.5 spread as home-dogs and the over hits again at over 44.5 

Atlanta at Seattle: Last week Seattle pulled the home upset and typically plays well in the loudest stadium in the NFL. Matty Ice will be licking his chops to get his team back to .500 after losing a tough game in Tampa Bay last week. This one also has that non-divisional blow-out “We’re back” statement written all over it. Carroll will be out-coached and Mike Smith will turn to Michael Turner and the running game to give Matt Ryan more protection. The total has moved down from 40 points to 38.5 and with good reason. My Pick: Atlanta 24-10 to cover as 4 point favorites and under the total.

New England at Oakland: Brady just threw 4 picks, squandered a half-time lead that should have been 28-7 instead of 21-10 due to one of those picks and the defense was picked apart by another QB. Good news is Jason Campbell isn’t a good QB. The Pats actually have a good run defense and Belicheck  follows losses better than any coach in recent memory. The smash-mouth style may cause this game to be lower scoring than expected for the high-powered Pats, but I say this is a good match-up for them even with Haynesworth out for the game. My Pick: Pats win (line has moved up from -4.5 to 6 on the road and late week movement is sharp bookie movement) so I’m taking the Pats by 11 in this game at 31-20. Under the posted 55 point total

Denver at Green Bay: Look , Green Bay has this game in the bag. A huge road win last week over Chicago, the best overall team in the NFL and a Denver team that just doesn’t look right. The opening line was set at 13 and has actually moved down to -12.5. Something is fishy here don’t ya think. Most pundits are picking huge blow-out, but this line has me thinking 10 point victory. Ryan Grant’s injury shouldn’t have any major effects on this game. My Pick: Green Bay wins 28-17 while Denver covers and the game goes under the 46 points.

Miami at SD:  Call me crazy, but doesn’t it seem that Norv Turner and Philip Rivers put up great offensive stats, yet struggle to get wins against the AFC East teams!!! This is my upset special of the week.  Reggie Bush back in Cali gets a big run and TD. Henne does just enough to win and the early season mistake-prone Chargers put a couple on the ground in the form of fumbles in this one. Cameron Wake will record a two-sack game. My Pick: Miami in a shocker 24-21 to cover as 7 point road dogs and under the 46 point total. 

Sunday Night Game:

NYJ at Baltimore: Teams that can’t run that are complemented by average QB’s don’t normally fair well against the Ravens stingy defense. The same can be said about the Jets defense, expect for one thing. Ray Rice can run as did McFadden last week on repeated sweeps to the left of the line. Couple that with Ray Lewis against a replacement center at home and I say the Ravens win this game handily. My Pick: Ravens 21-10 to cover the -4.5 favorites spread and under the total of 41.

Monday Night Football:

Tampa Bay at Indy: Normally I would say Tampa is due for a let down after a big win at home versus the Falcons, but its Monday Night folks and the Colts look awful this year. They will keep it respectable for a half, but Josh Freeman, M Williams and L. Blount will batter the Indy defense and Kerry Collins will looking for his rocking chair after this one.  My Pick: TB wins but fails to cover the -10 points on the road. The Colts do have some respect for themselves and its a National Game. 24-17. A push on the total of 41

And now a quick word from Mick Chiampietro:

 Its’s Macho Picchu, aka Mickey Champs, aka the guy that blatantly hates ESPN’s John Clayton with a passion. Have you ever heard the saying “Never trust a skinny chef?” Have you seen John Clayton. He looks as if he was cut from an intramural flag football team. The master of the obvious. I’d rather listen to Angela Lansbury spout off her first and 10 or better yet listen to Peter Gammons and Lou Holtz  recite MacBeth (I’d buy stock in windex for the teleprompter on that affair).  Did anyone else really need Claytongue to tell us that the nationally televised Sunday Night Game of NYJ at Baltimore was the game of the week. A week that includes all non-divisional games and a Monday Night game featuring a quarterback in Indy that is old enough to have baptised Claychin?

How about this keen sense of observation: “Tom Brady  doesn’t match up as well against defenses that play man coverage and can rush the middle of the field and get defenders around his legs'” Really Columbo? Name me a quarterback in the history of the game that matches up well against a defense that gets defenders around his legs.  How about his prediction that Dallas is due for a let down against an undefeated Detroit Lions team? This is just in week 4’s First and 10. Anyone who follows ESPN’s coverage of the NFL is aware that this guy just doesn’t cut it. Call him chief, chachi, Dr. D-Bagel, feed em beans or give him the gulps…. thumb to larynx style, just please don’t pay his analysis any mind. He doesn’t even have the sack to bone up and pick winners for any of his games. GD Sally. Due to his resemblance to Mr. Mackey of South Park (ummmm-kayy) and his assassination of solid reporting I’ve decide to give him the serial killer 3 name moniker of John Clayton Mackey.

So if you hate John Crackskin as much as Mickey C, then I formally invite you to hate on with me and like my new facebook page.

Blatant Hatred of John Clayton ESPN D-Bag

7 Responses to “NFL Week 4 Game Predictions”
  1. Scorcho Slim says:

    Spray-em Coach! Pats on later.. hopefully I’ll get to watch it and have an opinion for myself.

  2. Scorcho Slim says:

    Looks like someone thought of that as well haha! Perfect.

  3. Tough day coach!!! Told you about SF winning!!! and that Ridley would be key for Pats, but at least you picked that one right. Lots of surprises tda. You looked good early in a lot of games. Cincy was a nice upset. Looks like you went 7-8 today? Had the Dallas and Arizona games pegged right until they choked and that 49ers game would’ve had you at 10-5 for the day. Would’ve could’ve should’ve doesnt cut it though LeSpooge

  4. jessica says:

    I have been perusing your weblog whenever I receive a opportunity…and I just wanted to tell you how much I enjoy it! Thank you for your know-how to this topic!

  5. Hehe I see that you are doing good buddy, nice content. But I would advise you that you try with some advertising, your Google rankings would be better probably. If your budget is tight, try to network with other similar sites and try to do some banner exchanging with them. You have a nice blog here, it would be a shame if the people don’t see it 😉 Best regards

  6. Mario Raiche says:

    Great article, I really like your writting style. Fantasy Football Rankings Week 7 2011

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