Inside the Knox Score: Bills at Giants

This will be the first release of “Inside the Knox Score.” In these game breakdowns, we will be giving you football betting trends, score predictions to help you handicap NFL games as well as some fantasy predictions within the game. This information is useful for those of you using football cards, survivor pools, in fantasy football leagues, avid fans or for those of you willing to take the risk of throwing your hard-earned dollars on the line to make a buck. Best of Luck !!!

Buffalo Bills at NY Giants

The line sits at -3 with an over/under of 49.5 with the home-team Giants being the favorites. Generally the home-team starts as a 3 point favorite, so it looks like the scouts think this game is pretty even. Can’t disagree there. Let’s take a closer look at some trends and key match-ups.

Trends:

Buffalo is 6-2 in their last 8 games as a road underdog versus the spread and 8-3-1 in 12 straight as underdogs overall. Furthermore they are 7-3 in their last 10 games on the road against teams with a winning-home record. This just cements the rise in their game since the second half of last season.

The NY Giants are a whopping 22-8-1 in their last 30 October games and are 6-2-1 following a loss of double-digits or more. That stat may be a key after the embarrasment of last week’s game vs. The Seahawks.

The over/under trends in the NFL this year are ridiculous.  Scores in the NFL are soaring this season with the pass-happy style of play and this season the overs are cashing at a rate of 48-28 for 63% of the games.   That total is high, but the bookies are catching on as the overs this week have been set at an all time high. The over/under trends for this game also lean towards the over. Over is 6-0-1 in NYG last 7 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game and the G-Men have gone over in 7 of their last 9 games on turf.

Bills Offense vs. Giants Defense

Ryan Fitzpatrick and company are having an amazing offensive season thus far. Fitzy has thrown for 1233 yds has a TD/INT ratio of 10/4 and a passer rating of 96.4. All impressive stats. The key cog for the Bills offense has been Fred Jackson, especially on screen-plays. He has accumulated 11 receptions for 152 yards on screens to lead all NFL running backs. However, Giants linebackers Michael Boley and Mathias Kiwanuka have held running backs to a paltry 22 receiving yards on screens all season. The Giants defensive line led by Pierre-Paul and his 6.5 sacks lead the league with a team total of 18 sacks.  The Giants defensive weakness is against the run where they have given up 159 yds/gm. Expect the Bills to run on the edges in this game with Jackson allowing the opportunity for some deep throws as he game moves into the second half.

Giants Offense vs. Bills Defense

Despite last week’s debacle against the Seattle Seahawks, Eli Manning has been having a stellar season. A passer rating of 102.3 says a lot with 1486 yards and a 11-5 TD/INT ratio. His receiving corps is a strong trio of Hakeem Nicks, Mario Manningham and Victor Cruz. The rushing game as been anything but exciting this year and with Brandon Jacobs out this week, I expect the ball in the air a lot. The Bills lead the league with 12 INT’s this year and it would appear this is one-dimensional pass-first offense in NY is a mis-match for the Bills ball-hawking defense, but with injuries to Merriman, Kilsay and Williams on defense, Manning will have plenty of time in the pocket. The G-Men also have a pretty impressive screen styled running back of their own in Ahmad Bradshaw and although they are causing turnovers, they still give up the 26th most yards in the league.

Fantasy &Game Predictions:

The pressure of the Giants pass rush will be too much for Fitzy this week in hostile territory. Fitzpatrick should throw for 260 yds with 2TDS/2INTs and will be sacked 4 times. Jackson as noted will struggle in the receiving game, but gets a TD on 110 yards or so rushing this week. Receiver Steve Johnson should get a chance at a deep ball or two during the second half on some play-action and will get 4 receptions for 85 yds and a TD. My sleeper pick for fantasy point on the Bills side of the ball this week is Scott Chandler the TE. With all the pressure on the QB and eyes keyed in on Jackson screens, Chandler should have some room over the middle. I expect 5 receptions for 70 yds and a red-zone TD.

The Giants offense will feature a spread attack as normal with a steady diet of shotgun draws and screens to Bradshaw. Manning throws for 290 with 3TDS/1INT this week. Manningham has the big receiving day for them with 8 receptions for 115 yds , Nicks gets 2 TDs and Bradshaw runs for only 60 yds but picks up another 50 yds receiving this game. The Giants defense as I said will grab 4 sacks with two by Pierre-Paul and wins the turnover battle and the game.

Pick: Giants win 28-24 and the game goes over the total of 49.5 points.

You can follow JB Knox on twitter @theknoxscore

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