Inside The Knox Score: Rams at Packers

I’m not sure what there is to say about this game that hasn’t already been said. The Rams have no chance to win this game not in Green Bay, not in St. Louis. Not unless something terrible happens to Aaron Rodgers in the parking lot, say maybe he runs into Mr. Miyagi-san who just happens to be a huge St. Louis Rams fan!?! OK, back to reality here. The only reason I am spending time talking about this game is because of the extremely high double-digit spread. Double-digit spreads are kryptonite for bettors. It’s like walking around a group of homeless drunks dangling change, cigarettes and whiskey in front of their faces. The line opened up at -15.5 which might as well be 16.5 because the key numbers in football are 3s and 7s, meaning most likely the Packers will have to win by 17 points if you take them to win this bet. The sharp bettors have moved this line down a bit to -14.5 and the total has moved from 48 points to 47. I wouldn’t touch this spread at all in a straight bet, but a two or three team tease with this game included is a decent idea.

Trends

The trends for the Packers are outrageous. They are 8-1 ATS in last 9 games, 7-1 ATS as home favorites last 8 games, 4-0 in last 4 October games, 6-1 ATS vs NFC and it keeps on going. The Rams, strangely enough are 5-0 ATS in last 5 games on grass. That’s about all the good I can say for the Rams when it comes to trends.

Packers Offense vs Rams Defense

We all know that Aaron Rodgers is the best QB in the NFL right now, yes he’s better than Tom Brady and yes he’s better than Drew Brees. He looked human for a moment last week, but when the Packers adjusted to injuries on the O-lone and started chipping at the left defensive ends of the Falcons he went into cruise control and as usual never looked worried. Way too much speed and talent on this team. Jennings/Driver will have a field-day with the Rams missing Ron Bartell as will the rest of the Packers receivers. The Rams won’t do what the Saints, Falcons and Bears couldn’t.

Rams Offense vs Packers Defense

In order to have any chance of staying in this game, the Rams O-Line is going to have to play a perfect game and get some breaks or miracles. They are on the road against a Packers defense that has been improving by the week with Matthews playing lights out again and Woodson sniffing out for fumbles and picks on every play. Charles Woodson is also the best corner back in the league when it comes to stopping the run, so things don’t look good for the Rams at all. They average a terrible 11.1 points a game and that isn’t enough to stay with the Packers for 3 possessions, let alone a 60 minute game.

Fantasy & Game Predictions

As I said Rodgers will throw for at least 350-400 yds in this game and will also have 4 TDS. Jennings would normally have a stat-packed day but he is probable and with a score that I expect to be somewhat out-of hand by half-time he may be wearing a baseball cap by then. Driver benefits due to this and gets the big numbers at 8 catches for 110 yards and 2 TDS. Finley snags a TD and 70 YDS or and Starks gets big-lead clock eating yardage from about midway through the 3rd quarter and on. The Rams QB Sam Bradford might have a decent day yardage wise. The Packers defense is 4th against the rush so S. Jackson is a non-factor at about 45 yards on the game, but Bradford will be throwing a lot in garbage time and possibly against the 2nd and 3rd stringers here. The Packers do give up the 30th ranked passing yards against so Danario Alexander or Mike Sims-Walker may be decent options if you have 2 fantasy receivers on bye weeks.

Pick: Packers win big 38-10 to cover and game just barely goes over the total of 47.5

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