Inside the Knox Score: Texans at Ravens

This should be another great game. Baltimore is coming off a bye week, the Texans have lost Mario Williams and Ed Reed will chomping at the bit facing Matt Schaub. The line has moved from an open of -6.5 to -7 most likely due to the injury of Williams. The over/under has held pat at 45 points total.

Trends

The Texans are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog and 4-11 as underdogs on the road against teams with a winning record, but an impressive 4-1 ATS against the AFC in their last 5. The Ravens are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a bye week. They are also 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall. The over is 23-7 in Houston’s last 30 games vs teams with a winning record and 5-0 in their last 5 games a road dogs.

Texans Offense vs Ravens Defense

We still aren’t sure if Andre Johnson is available for the Texans at this point and that makes this a bit tougher for the Texans against this Ravens defense, especially considering the extra week to game plan. Adrian Foster will have to do a lot of work in this game with some help from an amazing Offensive Line unit and Matt Schaub (also hurting)  will have to find Owen Daniels the tight end to keep the defense at bay a bit. Derrick Mason was acquired this week, but shouldn’t make any major impact on this game. Ed Reed won’t have to worry about Andre Johnson and with the Texans most likely running the ball a ton, will be able to spy the TE Daniels more. Expect Reed to be in very close to the line for some 10-15 yard over the middle plays. Terrell Suggs , Ray Lewis and Haloti Ngata will be battling a tough Offensive Line but should cause enough havoc to keep Adrian Foster and Tate in check.

Ravens Offense vs Texans Defense

The revamped Wade Phillips coached defense was designed around Mario Williams at OLB, but a rookie will start there in his stead. Brian Cushing is not enough to keep Ray Rice and company in check. Rice should and will be used often in both the run game and screen game. Boldin will have more time to get open and Flacco will have a little  more time to  check down when necessary against the Texans this week with the injury bug taking it’s toll, but their D-Line has been strong this year and the weak side battle should be interesting to see. The Ravens have the 9th best offense in the league and Flacco still hasn’t played a great game.

Fantasy & Game Predictions

Houston will hang tough for awhile in this game, but Schaub will be pressured into bad decisions and the Ravens will control the clock for a majority of the game. Ray Rice should rush at least 25 times for 110 yds and 2 TDS in addition to about 40 yards receiving on the left side of the defense. With Williams out of the mix and a rookie in his place trying to figure out schemes and where he is, Boldin should be able to find room underneath the zones and have a big day with 8 catches and 100 yds. Hosuton’s Adrian Foster will struggle in this game facing the league’s number 2 rush defense. The Ravens will force him towards Ngata and make him pay for going there. They will hold him to 60 yards total offense and no TDS. Daniels may have a decent day on check downs and get about 7 receptions for 75 yards or so.

Pick: Ravens win and cover 27-14 is another under game as defenses and bookies finally catch up to the pass-happy offenses. 

You can follow JB Knox on twitter @theknoxscore

Advertisements
Comments
One Response to “Inside the Knox Score: Texans at Ravens”
  1. IanBlanchard says:

    Nice analysis Jim. I like Baltimore all day here because, as stated: Flacco is due for a decent game and the Texans are hurt. Adding in that the Ravens have a stellar Defense, I see your prediction as valid. I also think, as the season goes along, defenses as a whole will close the scoring gaps. Teams around the league become synched as a whole lot of game film will be watched, and new and inspiring leaders materialize in the locker room.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: