NFL Week 7 Game Picks: Chargers at Jets

So we’re back for the second installment of  Inside The Knox Score, where we breakdown each game on the NFL docket. For all of these games we cover key matchups on both sides of the ball as well as predict fantasy numbers, pick straight up winners , over/under predictions and the winner when taking the spread into consideration. Last week I crushed the predictions here at The Daily Beans going a whopping 10-1 picking straight-up winners, an astounding 9-2 against the numbers as well as an impressive 7-4 on the over/unders. In a nutshell, if you had put $100 beans on each game and the totals you would have gone a total of 16-6 and won $940 beans total. 

The San Diego Chargers (6) travel east to face the New York Jets (17) in what should be a very tough game. The Chargers sit atop the AFC West with a 4-1 overall record and the Jets are trailing both the Patriots and the Bills in the AFC East at 3-3. This is a big game for the Jets, who can’t afford to lose ground and especially not at home. The Jets are coming off what I would consider a poor performance in their MNF game vs the Dolphins. The Chargers will look to separate themselves a bit more in their division while getting their revenge from last season’s home playoff loss to NY 17-14. The line has opened at a PK or 0 and has moved in favor the Chargers, while the over/under has slipped from 45.5 down to 43.

Trends

Sand Diego is 18-8-1 in their last 27 games after allowing less than 150 yards in their last game. They are also 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a win against the numbers. The Jets with an interesting stat-line are 12-4-1 in their last 17 games when following a MNF game the following Sunday, but are only 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record. The over/under strangely enough is 22-8 in the Jets last 30 games and 21-8-1 in their last their last 30 game vs the AFC.

Jets Offense vs Chargers Defense

The Jets offense hasn’t been sharp at all this year and certainly didn’t do anything to erase these thoughts vs the Fins last Monday. They’re not even averaging a total of 300 yds/gm of total offense. Sanchez has a completion percentage that would rival….say Shaq’s career free-throw percentage. 56% really Sanchez!?!  San Diego is coming in with the 2nd ranked pass-defense in the NFL, but again a bit on the over-rated side. They have beaten teams with a combined 4-17 record and have faced Orton/Tebow, Cassell, McNabb,  and Matt Moore. Not exactly elite QBs. Imagine what their numbers would like if they hadn’t been torched by Tom Brady in week 2 for 432 yards and 35 points. The offensive schemes have been pretty vanilla this year for the Jets. Sanchez hangs onto the ball far too long and without the quick slant type players in the receiving corps combined with the sloppy route-running of  Burress he is forced to make too many reads. Reads and checkdowns aren’t exactly Dirty Sanchez’s forte. Dustin Keller will have to be big in this game for NY and the running game most likely will be geared towards the left-side of the line and D-Brick Ferguson. Can S. Greene and LT nab another 100 yard game?  I wouldn’t expect many big runs vs the talented linebacker corps of San Diego, but Willis McGahee, Adrian Peterson and BenJarvus Green-Ellis have all had pretty decent games against them, so expect more rushing attempts to keep Rivers off the field. Spikes and Butler have been very strong for the Chargers all season on both runs up the middle and screens, which are a favorite of the Jets offense and Ladainian Tomlinson.

Chargers Offense vs Jets Defense

This match-up will decide the game in my opinion. The Jets have only given up 9 points at home in their last two games albeit vs Miami and Jacksonville. The Chargers have some injuries to contend with on their side of the of the ball this week. Big Mike Tolbert is probable with a concussion, Gates has plantar fascitis, Matthews has a calf-strain and the speedy Vinny Jackson is being slowed by a hamstring injury. That is a bevy of problems for the players most responsible for putting up points. Rivers has been plagued this season with the INT-bug and there isn’t exactly a vaccine coming at him this week vs this Jets secondary. Revis is coming off of a huge game Monday and may be asked to cover Malcolm Floyd this week as the game moves on. Jackson’s injury will be offset by Cromartie being hampered in the  groin area. Not a good injury for the turn and go movements of a premiere cornerback. Rivers will try to exploit this in combination with getting Gates going against the undersized Jets safeties. Some of the reason for the Jets lowly ranked rush defense is the fact that they face a ton of attempts, but the 4.3 yards per carry shows that once the opposing RB’s get through the line, the smaller athletic secondary hasn’t been willing to smash-mouth and stop bigger gains. This sets up 3rd and shorts for the opposition and has spelled troubles. Will Rivers be able to stop throwing picks? I can’t wait to watch these sides face each other this week.

Fantasy & Game Predictions

Yes I know the Jets have struggled this season and the Chargers are 4-1, but San Diego’s wins are vs teams with a 4-17 record and their only game worth noting was the blow-out loss at the hands of the Pats 35-21. This is a must-win for the Jets to keep pace with Buffalo and the above-mentioned Pats. The Chargers seem to struggle with the teams in the AFC East and barely held off a late-comeback vs the weak Miami Dolphins. I say Rivers throws for 240 with 1TD/2INTs,  Malcolm Floyd gets the TD if he gets matched vs Cromartie, who takes his chances and Matthews will nab about 68 yards. The injury to Tolbert may cause problems for the Chargers running game and the 1PM start after travelling coast-to-coast will have them a bit tired. San Diego will not break 100 yards this game on the ground and in the end will be their undoing. Jackson’s hammy & the possibility of Revis Island will hold him at about 40-50 yards. The Sand Diego red-zone efficiency this season has had them kicking lots of FGs so if you need a kicker Novak for SD is a good pickup. For NY expect Keller to be the focal point of the offense. They usually stack him up next to Ferguson (LT) prividing him with the necessary space over the middle. The Jets will need to get the ball out quicker and use Holmes on slants and hope Greene can find holes in the SD run defense. Sanchez throws for 220 and a TD. Keller will have 80-100 yards receiving with Holmes picking up another big play of 30 plus yards. LT may get some receiving numbers in the 30-40 yard range, but no more than that. Sh. Greene should have a decent day. The Chargers will try and pressure Sanchez and this may open things up on the left-side of the line. If Holmes runs a slant while Keller and D’Brick push the D-line to the outside those gaps can be hit all day. Greene goes for 110 yards and a TD.

Pick: NYJ win at home 26-23 by winning the turnover battle (INTS) and San Diego’s continued Red-Zone issues. They cover as -1 home underdogs and the game goes over the 43 point spread.

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Comments
5 Responses to “NFL Week 7 Game Picks: Chargers at Jets”
  1. footballnutz17 says:

    Oh no way man, Jets over Chargers?

  2. Derrel "Jazz" Johnson says:

    I am a New York Jets fan, but I see the Chargers pulling this one off. Hope I am wrong, but the Jets lack of speed at the linebacker position will allow the Chargers to run the ball, and Rivers will pick to throw to whoever Darrelle Revis isn’t covering.

  3. J.B. Knox says:

    If San Diego does win this game it will be their first win over a decent team this year. The Chargers also have a history of struggling against physical teams. Should be a great game though. Yes I agree Jets do have slow LBs but Rivers hasn’t been pressured all year and has still thrown 7INTs in 5 games.

    With a weak docket of games this week due to the upper echelon teams ironically all on a bye week, this better be one of the most interesting battles of the week

  4. IanBlanchard says:

    Good call Jim. You tha man

    • J.B. Knox says:

      Thanks Ian. Struggled with the 6 picks I posted due to less time for game breakdowns, but I keyed in on this game and nailed it on the screws!!!

      I hate the J-E-T-S, but I love when I am right, lol. Watching this game was great. It was exactly how I envisioned it. SD played the same way against the Dolphins early in the year…came out early driving the ball down the field with ease, took the lead and then couldn’t score in the red-zone and played tired, out-of-shape football in the second half. Miami came back and made a game of it. Same problem they had with Denver the following week, then a bye and then the Jets made em pay for their 2nd-half weaknesses when Ryan out-coached Turner with his adjustements and Rivers threw those picks I was talking about

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