NFl Week 7 Picks: Bears at Buccaneers

  • So we’re here back for the second installment of  Inside The Knox Score, where we breakdown each game on the NFL docket. For all of these games we cover key matchups on both sides of the ball as well as predict fantasy numbers, pick straight up winners , over/under predictions and the winner when taking the spread into consideration. Last week I crushed the predictions here at The Daily Beans going a whopping 10-1 picking straight-up winners, an astounding 9-2 against the numbers as well as an impressive 7-4 on the over/unders. In a nutshell, if you had put $100 beans on each game and the totals you would have gone a total of 16-6 and won $940 beans total. 

Tampa Bay in the UK this week to take on the Chicago Bears. A physical, hard-hitting game no doubt here for the futbol fans watching football this Sunday!!! Tampa Bay is looking to streak after their huge win over the Saints last week and Chicago si coming off of a blow-out victory over the Vikings. A victory that cause the Vikes to bench Donovan McNabb and will most likely result in his retiring. Tampa Bay opened at 0 and has moved to Chicago being favored at -2. Hmmmm? Strange movement here with a 50-50 split from the public. Wonder if our London followers are affecting this line in any way.

Trends

  • Bears are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0.
  • Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.
  • Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game
  • Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
  • Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC.
  • Bears are 1-7-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a road favorite of 0.5-3.0
  • Buccaneers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog.
  • Buccaneers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 vs. NFC.

The over is a hot pick in London as teams that have travelled there have been putting up big points. Think Pats game and almost 60 points.

Tampa Bay Offense vs Bears Defense

Josh Freeman is back in London after a terrible game years ago. He’s facing a typically strong defense in Chicago that seam, yes pun intended to be falling apart. Lance Briggs opened his big mouth this week about management. Chris Harris their safety is acting sophomoric because of a benching and between the turmoil and the jet-lag, this could turn out bad for the Bears. Urlacher and Peppers are going to need to carry this defense this week. Do you think a team that is this separated ion the locker room will be willing to take hard hits from Graham or attempt with full conviction to take down the big Josh Freeman? I don’t think soo.  Urlacher will have to pick his poison as he will most likely be responsible for handling a lot of Kellen Winslow. This could provide space for Grahamt and Freeman to rush a bit more. On roll-outs Freeman should be able to spring M. Williams for a couple for a couple of big ones and Graham is much more adept at the screen game due to better hands than the injured L. Blount. All of this chasing should tire the Bears defense, what with the distance they have travelled and all. Not to mention the fact that the Bears play a Tampa-2 defense, which they took from guess who? Tampa. The Bucs offense has been facing that defense in practice everyday all season.

Bears Offense vs Tampa Bay Defense

The Bears finally had a great offensive game against the Minnesota Vikings. A lot of these points were a result of D. Hester and his return prowess. Hester is suffering a chest injury in this game. Yes that does affect your running ability.. Think pumping hands in the air while sprinting thru traffic. Cutler still gets hit way too much for my liking, but Matt Forte will be able to run on this defense. Johhny Knox needs to step his game up. The Bears can’t expect to beat good teams away from Soldier Field with one player leading the team in both rushing and receiving. Jay Cutler, luckily may get a break from the sacks barrage. The Bucs average less than two sacks per game and Cutler will have more time to throw due to this. Will he make the right decisions is the question? This would be a great day for Gerald McCoy to make a name for himself, especially globally.

Fantasy & Game Predictions

I think that Josh Freeman redeems himself in front of the London crowd today and gets his jersey sales up across the Ocean. With 240 yards passing due to much help from Graham, Winslow and Williams. Each player records a receiving TD and Freeman runs one in as I expect them to put up big points today. The Bears away from Soldier Field have been trounced twice this season against good teams. I think Tampa Bay is right there with Detroit as they should have beat them earlier this season, if not for blowing a late game. The best thing that happened to the Bucs this year was the reality check, beat-down in SF. They’ve learned from their mistakes and are ready to take the next step. The Bears offense will also put up points today. Cutler’s extra time will allow him to find Johnny Know more and alleviate the pressure from Forte. Expect Knox to snag 6 catches this week for 80 yards. Forte gets the scoring done with 2TDs, but their remaining points will all be FGS.

Pick: Bucs win 31-20 to cover the spread and go over the total.

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