NFL Week 7 Picks: Broncos at Dolphins

So we’re back for the second installment of  Inside The Knox Score, where we breakdown each game on the NFL docket. For all of these games we cover key matchups on both sides of the ball as well as predict fantasy numbers, pick straight up winners , over/under predictions and the winner when taking the spread into consideration. Last week I crushed the predictions here at The Daily Beans going a whopping 10-1 picking straight-up winners, an astounding 9-2 against the numbers as well as an impressive 7-4 on the over/unders. In a nutshell, if you had put $100 beans on each game and the totals you would have gone a total of 16-6 and won $940 beans total. 

The Denver Broncos begin the Tim Tebow era in Miami today and everybody is riding the Broncos. They come into the game at a dismal 1–4 while their counterparts, the Miami Dolphins remain winless at 0-5. This game would normally be an afterthought if not for the much hyped Tebow and his playing in Florida. The line opened at -2.5 in favor of the Dolphins and after their awful showing on mOnday night and the public’s man-crush on Tebow it has flipped all the way to Denver now being favored by +1. The over/under has moved from 42.5 to 41.5 for the total.

Trends

The trends in this game for the Broncos have them at 1-4-1 in their last 6 games ATS, 2-6 ATS in their last 8 vs the AFC and are 0-6 against the number sin their last 6 games Head-to-head. Miami is 3-1-1 in their last 5 games as underdogs, but only 3-7  ATS as underdogs at home. In regards to  the total, the over is 5-1 in Denver’s last 6 games as road favorites. Head-to-head again has the underdogs at 4-0.

Denver Offense vs Miami Defense

This is an interesting match-up. The Dolphins defensive strengths are in their run defense where they rank 12th in the league yet they still give up 106 yards per game. Their pass defense gives up an awful 284.0 yds/gm. Tebow hasn’t exactly proven that he is an accurate thrower, but his scrambling ability and his improvisational skills make it tough to sack him for losses. To make things a bit more difficult for him this week is the absence of Brandon Lloyd who has been traded to the St. Louis Rams. Look for Eric Decker to take on a much larger role in the passing game. A passing game that I say has been put to the back burner as indicated by the aforementioned trade. The Broncos will look to control the ball a little bit more and us ethe scrambling abilities of Tebow to its advantage. The Fins best pass rusher is Cameron Wake. Wake will be located on the front-side of Tebow and does have the speed to make things difficult for the young starter, but Tebow should be able to read Wake coming from his right. Willis McGahee and Knowshon Moreno should both see a lot of the ball today as I expect the three-headed monster to run a ton. Defending Tebow is very similar to facing a starting pitcher in baseball that is effectively wild. It’s tough to game plan for him. You constantly keep an eye on his bootlegs and possible options and the due to this a deep ball or two tend to open up as the game moves on. He could easily go 12-27 in attempts, but in those 12 passes, two or three are open for big yardage and one may spring for the  under achieving  Eddie Royal.  There will be a lot of pressure on Miami’s defense today due to their lack of offensive attack and the running abilities of the Broncos. Safeties and linebacker swill be on the move and that deep ball that I mentioned should start to open towards the middle of the 3rd quarter and although the Broncos are short on receiving talent  it isn’t as if Miami has the talent in their secondary to take advantage of this.

Miami Offense vs Denver Defense

Matt Moore, yes I said Matt Moore. He is the reason that QB’s in the CFL think they have a chance in the NFL. In his last 8 game sin the NFL, Moore has compiled 5TDS/13INTs, has been sacked 17 times and completed on 55% of his passes. That 17 sacks part of the equation has a lot to do with the 13INTS and Moore doesn’t have the pocket presence to counter the pressure. The Dolphins line hasn’t played up to snuff yet this season and allowed another 4 sack last week in New York. Moore did hook-up with Brandon Marshall for 6 receptions and 109 yards last week, but made some bad decisions throwing towards the island of Revis and was picked twice. One of those turned into a TD. The Broncos have recorded 5 sacks this season led by rookie phenom Von Miller out of Texas A& M. He will be on the side of pro-bowler Jake Long so this should be an interesting battle.  Champ Bailey will be held responsible for taking care of Marshall in the secondary, but with constant pressure from a solid pass-rush, I see the Broncos making things miserable for the Matt Moore led Fins.

Fantasy & Game Predictions

Look, normally I would love to fade the public’s perception that Tebow and the Broncos will win this game and give the Dolphins their first win of the season, but Miami is flat-out bad. Other than a blow-out loss at Green Bay, the Broncos have been in striking range in every game this season. Champ Bailey will have his hands full, but with added pressure from Von Miller he may see some opportunities for a pick on a underthrown ball. Give that pick to Champ Bailey on a double-coverage set while spying Moore’s eyes. It shouldn’t be too hard to read. Miller gets 2 sacks against the Dolphins weak O-line. Tebow will actually eclipse the 200 yard marker for a TD pass to  his Tight-End, Daniel Fells. The running game explodes for 170 yards. Tebow gets his 60 and 100 for Willis McGahee with another TD. Miami is hopeless. Daniel Thomas may chip-in with some decent runs vs the Broncos rush defense but it won’t be enough. The combo of Bush & Thomas can sneak past the 120 yard marker with a split of 70 for Thomas and 50 for Bush, while Marshall gets about 90 yards receiving and his usual 5 receptions. Miami will be hard pressed to put up big points per the norm, but a TD and about 2 FGs should be possible.

Pick: Broncos win 20-13 to cover the points and the game slides under the total.

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Comments
2 Responses to “NFL Week 7 Picks: Broncos at Dolphins”
  1. JW says:

    I wonder how much the Dolphins paid the Broncos to make sure Tebow started today?

    • J.B. Knox says:

      hahaha Dubs!!! Probably a lot. Tickets sales are booming down there. If Tebow were an NBA player he’d be asking for 50% of the gate profits

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