5 Reasons Why Chargers lose to the Chiefs

The San Diego Chargers come into this battle struggling mightily as of late. Yes, I know they lead their division at 4-2, but they haven’t beaten a team with a winning record yet this season. That will change this evening, but not because they topple the Chiefs. It is because I believe the Chiefs win this game and move to 4-3, thus giving them a winning record and moving them into a tie with the Chargers atop the NFC West division.

I feel there are 5 key areas of concern for the Chargers in this MNF battle. Five areas of major concern and weakness. Most teams have to make a few adjustments each week, but 5 is an alarming amount of errs to contend with. The list is as follows:

1) The Public Loves San Diego

The line on this game has open at -3.5 points and has been bet down to -3 in favor of the Chargers. The red flag in this scenario is that the public is backing San Diego at 61.9 %. Have you ever heard the saying, “The House Always Wins?” Fade the public perception more often than not. The mere fact that the line has moved down a bit is due to the professional bettors staying on the side of the Chiefs at home.

2) Turnover Ratio

The Kansas City Chiefs are 3-1 this year when winning the turnover ratio and face a Chargers squad that ranks 25th in the NFL with a -5 turnover ratio. The Chiefs lone loss when winning with war of turnovers was against the Chargers earlier this year. In that game The Chiefs threw a more costly interception late and missed a late game-tying field goal by Ryan Succup. Yes that name is certainly ironic. Compounding the problem here is Philip Rivers. He is 3rd to last this season with a TD/INT ratio of 7/9. The only two QBs that better his rate are Josh Freeman of Tampa Bay and the recently benched “Train Rex” Grossman. The Chiefs pulled off an amazing 6 INTs last week and have won the turnover battle 4 straight weeks now. The improved play of their linebackers has to be mentioned here as well. Derrick Johnson has been a monster lately accumulating 35 tackles over his last 4 games. An unsung hero helping his cause has been Tyson Jackson. Jackson struggled early in the year but has improved weekly. His numbers are not gaudy by any means with just 12 tackles, 2 passes deflected and 2 QB hurries over 4 weeks, but when you measure the gaps he is opening for linebackers behind him such as Johnson in a 3-4 Base D, you can see the intangibles at play are working.

3) San Diego Run Defense

The Chargers are 21st in the NFL against the run giving up 121.7 yards per game. This number climbs to 139.3 per game on the road. They will be facing a stout rushing team in the Kansas City Chiefs tonight. KC ranks 8th in the league at 129.3 yards per game and picks up that number to 145 yds/gm at home. What does this mean? It means that the Chiefs should expect to eat some clock , controlling the Time Of Possession stat and keeping Philip Rivers off of the field. They will be using a combination of speed and power with Jackie Battle  and Dexter McCluster. Battle is averaging a whopping 5.2 yards per carry and McCluster who is considered more of an “Offensive Weapon” than a running back averages 6.1 per carry in his career.

4) Injuries

Do both teams have major injury concerns? Absolutely. The Chiefs have lost safety Eric Berry and Jamaal Charles. That is two of their best players, but they have had 7 weeks now to adjust and they are hitting their stride. The weak run defense of  San Diego will be without the help of Shaun Phillips, their best linebacker. The Chargers already struggle pressuring the QB , having only 10 sacks on the year. Their biggest advantage tonight was the Rivers over Matt Cassell advantage. With Phillips’ team leading 3 sacks for 23 yards lost taking up 30% of that they will be in trouble tonight. If KC gets the running game going early, the play-action will open up for Dwayne Bowe to exploit and Cassell will have the time to exploit it.

5) Arrowhead Stadium

If I said name the 3 loudest stadiums in the NFL off the top of your head, Arrowhead hits your lips pretty quickly. It’s Halloween Night, it is Monday Night Football, a tie for the division lead is up for grabs and this place may have a picture next to the word raucous on Wikipedia after this game is said and done. The Chiefs are a vastly improved team from their close loss at San Diego earlier this season. The Chargers aren’t playing well, will not be able to audible tonight and seriously doubt their coach Norv Turner’s ability for in-game adjustments.

Final Analysis

The Chargers aren’t looking very good right now. They have a huge game next week against the Green Bay Packers. They barely squeaked a win out over the Chiefs at home earlier this year and that was when the Chiefs were in the midst of playing their worst football. This game is at the sound-level blasting Arrowhead Stadium and the Chiefs are very hungry to defend their NFC West Championship last year. I’m taking the Chiefs to cover the spread in this game and to win outright.

Final Score: Chiefs 23-17

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Comments
5 Responses to “5 Reasons Why Chargers lose to the Chiefs”
  1. george joy says:

    nice job j.b., i origanally liked s.d. but after reading your comments i got a little weary of taking s.d. so what i did was stay away from the game an saved some cash. i wish i could say i bet the game but i didnt. really though it was too hard to call. thanks for saving me some cash an made me a winner for the week!

  2. IanBlanchard says:

    Nice call JB. A straight up clumsy move by San diego to give away the ball right there…Wonder if the noise disrupted the snap count? The house always wins…. hmmm

  3. i love your blog, i have it in my rss reader and always like new things coming up from it.

  4. brief22 says:

    JB, I just wanted to say that I love what you’ve done with the new site keep it going!

  5. brief22 says:

    Power rankings this week?

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